Wildfires in Idaho will get worse

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It’s dry. It can stay dry for a while. Last week I told the story of some scientists saying this is the worst drought in 1,200 years. They base this on very dry ground in the high desert. We have also been in a cycle of drought for twenty-two years which often lasts 30 years. Some cycles last much longer. These are historical cycles that predate human life. They also predate industrialization. Scientists say human activity is responsible for the current cycle being drier than previous drought episodes.

Now comes a report that says wildfires are going to get more and more intense. Let’s start by acknowledging that the sources are not very reliable in this corner of America. The study was published by the United Nations and was reported by the Washington Post (among other media). I originally saw the story in the Post. You can read it in click here. This suggests that the intensity will increase throughout the century and be 50% worse by 2100.

Computer Models, Mediums, and Ouija Boards

The usual computer modeling is the trusted ally of scientists. If that doesn’t work, they’ll move the goal post. If the west burns, they’ll have a touchdown celebration.

What caused the last major drought?

Tree rings are used as a method of measuring past droughts. As one current skeptic asked me, what man-made activity caused the nasty drought of the 800s? Clearly, none. It can be related to volcanic eruptions (there was a bad streak in the 500s) or solar activity or it’s embedded in the planetary system. His question is a common one and it favors the sowing of doubt.

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